Your sales in Capstone 2.0 are influenced not just by your own decisions but equally by your competitors’ moves — and sometimes, their mistakes. You might plan your production perfectly based on last year’s segment demand, only to find your forecast off because a rival dropped prices or improved their product’s awareness. Forecasting in a dynamic simulation means recognizing that market demand is relative, shaped by the collective and interactive decisions of all companies in your industry.
Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis
Once you’ve created a base forecast, the real challenge begins — testing its resilience. Sensitivity analysis helps you identify which decisions in Capstone 2.0 (like Price, MTBF, or Promotion Expenditure) have the greatest impact on your results. By tweaking one variable at a time — say, increasing Price by 5% or reducing Awareness budgets slightly — you can observe how your Sales Forecast, Contribution Margin, or Market Share respond. This tells you which levers are high-risk and where you must stay agile.
Scenario analysis, in contrast, takes a multi-variable view. It builds alternative “mini-futures”:
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What if you and rivals all raise Performance and Price simultaneously?
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What if a segment’s Ideal Position shifts faster than expected?
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What if your competitors overproduce, flooding the market?
By modeling such scenarios, you don’t just react — you build strategic adaptability. The goal isn’t to predict perfectly but to anticipate possible realities and prepare flexible responses that keep your company competitive and profitable across multiple outcomes.
Discussion Preparation – Key Questions
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How can forecasting errors be minimized in a competitive simulation where demand depends on both your and your rivals’ decisions?
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What techniques can help avoid stockouts or excess inventory when forecasts are uncertain or competitor actions are unpredictable?
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How can sensitivity and scenario analysis support better strategic decision-making in Capstone 2.0?
